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Serie D logo

Serie D

May 30, 2026 4 weeks, 2 days ago
4 – 1
Full Time

Match Analysis

Água Santa Madureira
Água Santa W D D W L W
Madureira D L W L L D
STRENGTH
EXPECTED GOALS
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Madureira Água Santa 3 - 1 April 11, 2026

Água Santa Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 23, 26 Home Pouso Alegre 2 - 0 Win
May 16, 26 Away Portuguesa 0 - 0 Draw
May 10, 26 Away Portuguesa RJ 2 - 2 Draw
May 2, 26 Home Portuguesa RJ 1 - 0 Win
Apr 25, 26 Home Portuguesa 0 - 1 Loss
Apr 18, 26 Away Pouso Alegre 0 - 2 Win

Madureira Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
May 23, 26 Home Portuguesa RJ 1 - 1 Draw
May 16, 26 Away América RJ 3 - 1 Loss
May 9, 26 Home Portuguesa 1 - 0 Win
May 2, 26 Away Portuguesa 2 - 1 Loss
Apr 25, 26 Home América RJ 2 - 3 Loss
Apr 18, 26 Away Portuguesa RJ 0 - 0 Draw

Serie D Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
20 Água Santa 8 4 2 2 12 6 +6 14
73 Madureira 8 2 2 4 9 12 -3 8

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 52.64% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Água Santa to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Água Santa has a 38.06% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.60 %
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.08% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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