Liga Pro Serie B
Match Analysis
22 de Julio
El Nacional
22 de Julio
L
W
L
L
L
L
El Nacional
D
L
L
L
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model leans slightly toward a home win for 22 de Julio despite El Nacional holding a modest quality edge, likely because both teams are in poor form and have similar preparation time. Both sides have shown recent defensive vulnerabilities, which keeps the model cautious about a high-scoring match—it favors under 2.5 goals and leans toward both teams not scoring. The limited head-to-head history adds uncertainty, but the defensive frailties on both sides suggest a low-confidence prediction overall, with the home team's advantage just edging out El Nacional's slight quality superiority.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Nacional | 22 de Julio | 1 - 1 | May 9, 2026 |
22 de Julio Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | 9 de Octubre | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Gualaceo SC | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Cuniburo | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 2, 26 | Away | Cumbayá | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 9, 26 | Home | Atletico FC | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 6, 26 | Away | Vargas Torres | 1 - 0 | Loss |
El Nacional Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 26 | Home | Gualaceo SC | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 15, 26 | Away | Cuniburo | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 8, 26 | Home | Cumbayá | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 2, 26 | Away | Atletico FC | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 11, 26 | Home | Vargas Torres | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 7, 26 | Away | Deportivo Cuenca Juniors | 4 - 1 | Loss |
Liga Pro Serie B Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 22 de Julio | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 15 |
| 12 | El Nacional | 18 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 10 | 29 | -19 | 5 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 56.2% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.22 de Julio to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that 22 de Julio has a 38.63% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.82 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.5% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.63% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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