Serie D
Match Analysis
ABC
Nacional AM
ABC
W
W
D
W
L
D
Nacional AM
L
D
D
L
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
ABC holds a modest quality edge over Nacional AM and is in much stronger recent form, while Nacional AM has been struggling in their latest matches. The model predicts a home win with a 51% probability, which is slightly more confident than what the market odds imply. Additionally, the model sees a lower likelihood of both teams scoring and of the match exceeding 1.5 or 2.5 goals, aligning with a generally tighter, lower-scoring contest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional AM | ABC | 1 - 2 | August 8, 2026 |
ABC Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Nacional AM | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Luverdense | 4 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Luverdense | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Águia de Marabá | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Águia de Marabá | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jun 28, 26 | Home | Altos | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Nacional AM Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | ABC | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Iguatu | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Iguatu | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Capital Brasilia | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Capital Brasilia | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jun 28, 26 | Home | Araguaína | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Serie D Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ABC | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 37 |
| 12 | Nacional AM | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 29 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 55.33% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
ABC to win
This prediction indicates that ABC has a 51.42% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.42 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.94% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.64% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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