Primera División
Match Analysis
Alianza Lima
UTC
Alianza Lima
D
W
D
W
L
D
UTC
D
L
D
L
D
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Alianza Lima is considered clearly stronger than UTC, with a notable quality gap favoring the home side. Alianza Lima's recent form is moderate, while UTC has struggled recently, and Alianza has been strong in attack while UTC has had defensive problems. The model predicts a 74% chance that Alianza Lima will win, which is notably higher than what the current market odds suggest. The model also leans towards an over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals outcome, but sees it as less certain than the win prediction.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTC | Alianza Lima | 0 - 1 | February 28, 2026 |
| Alianza Lima | UTC | 3 - 0 | November 23, 2025 |
| UTC | Alianza Lima | 0 - 0 | July 12, 2025 |
| UTC | Alianza Lima | 0 - 1 | October 18, 2024 |
| Alianza Lima | UTC | 1 - 0 | May 4, 2024 |
| Alianza Lima | UTC | 1 - 0 | August 6, 2023 |
Alianza Lima Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Sport Boys | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 2, 26 | Home | Alianza Atletico | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Comerciantes Unidos | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 20, 26 | Home | Sport Huancayo | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Deportivo Cali | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| May 31, 26 | Away | FC Cajamarca | 1 - 1 | Draw |
UTC Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | ADT | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Cusco | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | UCV Moquegua | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Atletico Grau | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| May 31, 26 | Away | Cultural Santa Rosa | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| May 23, 26 | Home | Sport Boys | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Primera División Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 38 | 13 | +25 | 48 |
| 18 | UTC | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 20 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 58.54% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Alianza Lima to win
This prediction indicates that Alianza Lima has a 74.4% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 15.99 %Most Likely Scorelines
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