Alverca vs Estrela Saturday 15th August 2026 05:30 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Alverca Estrela

Alverca W W W W L D

Estrela W D D W L W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Alverca	Estrela	1 - 1	January 31, 2026
Estrela	Alverca	2 - 2	August 25, 2025

Alverca Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 25, 26	Home	Mafra	1 - 0	Win
Jul 22, 26	Home	Estoril	2 - 0	Win
Jul 17, 26	Home	CF Os Belenenses	2 - 1	Win
Jul 11, 26	Away	União de Leiria	0 - 1	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Famalicao	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Home	Estoril	1 - 1	Draw

Estrela Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 29, 26	Home	Lusitano Évora 1911	1 - 0	Win
Jul 29, 26	Home	Portimonense	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 29, 26	Away	Maritimo	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 23, 26	Home	Nacional	2 - 0	Win
Jul 18, 26	Home	Casa Pia	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 15, 26	Home	Naval 1º de Maio	2 - 0	Win

Primeira Liga Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Estrela	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Alverca	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.4% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Alverca to win

This prediction indicates that Alverca has a 44.12% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.82 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.0% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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