America SP vs Independente SP Sunday 09th August 2026 11:00 PM football predictions.

America SP Independente SP

America SP W D W D W D

Independente SP W L W W W W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 2, 26	Away	Itaquá Athletico Clube	0 - 3	Win
Jul 26, 26	Home	Itaquá Athletico Clube	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 19, 26	Away	José Bonifácio	2 - 4	Win
Jul 11, 26	Home	José Bonifácio	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 4, 26	Home	Santacruzense	3 - 0	Win
Jun 28, 26	Away	Santacruzense	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 2, 26	Home	Flamengo SP	1 - 0	Win
Jul 25, 26	Away	Flamengo SP	1 - 0	Loss
Jul 19, 26	Home	Sporting Paulinense	2 - 1	Win
Jul 12, 26	Away	Sporting Paulinense	0 - 1	Win
Jul 5, 26	Home	Tupa	2 - 0	Win
Jun 28, 26	Away	Tupa	0 - 2	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Independente SP	15	12	0	3	44	9	+35	36
5	America SP	15	7	7	1	21	10	+11	28

This prediction indicates that Independente SP has a 36.82% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 33.78 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 50.38% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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