Virsliga
Match Analysis
Auda
Ogre United
Auda
D
W
W
L
W
W
Ogre United
L
L
L
D
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Auda have been in strong recent form, while Ogre United have only shown moderate form recently. Despite Ogre United having a rest advantage and some defensive struggles, there is a clear quality gap favoring the home side, and they lack much recent head-to-head history to contradict this. The model predicts a home win with a 70% probability, which is notably more confident than what the current market odds suggest. The model also leans toward an over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals outcome, slightly more optimistic than the odds imply.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auda | Ogre United | 2 - 0 | May 30, 2026 |
| Ogre United | Auda | 1 - 1 | April 17, 2026 |
Auda Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Super Nova | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 25, 26 | Home | FK Liepaja | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 21, 26 | Home | Tukums | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 13, 26 | Away | Dinamo Tirana | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | FS Jelgava | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 4, 26 | Home | Dinamo Tirana | 1 - 0 | Win |
Ogre United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Rīgas FS | 0 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | FS Jelgava | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Riga | 4 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 27, 26 | Away | Grobiņa | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | BFC Daugavpils | 0 - 4 | Loss |
| Jul 6, 26 | Away | Super Nova | 1 - 2 | Win |
Virsliga Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auda | 27 | 16 | 5 | 6 | 44 | 27 | +17 | 53 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 14 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.92% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Auda to win
This prediction indicates that Auda has a 75.61% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 14.09 %Most Likely Scorelines
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