Ayr Utd vs Stenhousemuir Friday 25th September 2026 09:45 PM football predictions.

Championship

Sept. 25, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Ayr Utd Stenhousemuir

Ayr Utd L D L L D W

Stenhousemuir W W W D W D

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Stenhousemuir	Ayr Utd	1 - 4	July 23, 2024
Ayr Utd	Stenhousemuir	1 - 0	July 18, 2023
Ayr Utd	Stenhousemuir	5 - 0	July 24, 2018
Stenhousemuir	Ayr Utd	0 - 4	April 16, 2016
Ayr Utd	Stenhousemuir	4 - 1	March 8, 2016
Stenhousemuir	Ayr Utd	0 - 1	October 24, 2015

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 5, 26	Away	Partick	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Home	Morton	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 22, 26	Away	Raith Rovers	2 - 0	Loss
Aug 14, 26	Away	Kilmarnock	3 - 2	Loss
Aug 8, 26	Away	Dunfermline	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 1, 26	Home	Arbroath	2 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 4, 26	Away	Livingston	0 - 1	Win
Aug 29, 26	Home	Inverness CT	3 - 1	Win
Aug 22, 26	Away	Queen's Park	0 - 2	Win
Aug 16, 26	Home	Motherwell	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 8, 26	Home	Morton	2 - 0	Win
Aug 1, 26	Away	Raith Rovers	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Stenhousemuir	5	4	1	0	9	2	+7	13
6	Ayr Utd	4	1	2	1	4	4	0	5

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.1% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Stenhousemuir has a 39.04% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.34 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.7% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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