USL Championship
Match Analysis
Birmingham Legion
Rhode Island
Birmingham Legion
L
D
L
D
D
L
Rhode Island
W
W
L
D
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Rhode Island is seen as the stronger side in this matchup, with a clear quality gap favoring them over Birmingham Legion. Birmingham Legion's recent form has been poor, while Rhode Island has been performing well and also has the benefit of extra rest time before the game. The model predicts an away win with a 50% probability, which aligns closely with the market odds that also favor Rhode Island. Additionally, the model suggests it's unlikely both teams will score and that the game will finish with fewer than two goals, views that are notably more cautious than what the current odds imply.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | Birmingham Legion | 1 - 3 | May 2, 2026 |
| Rhode Island | Birmingham Legion | 1 - 1 | July 5, 2025 |
| Birmingham Legion | Rhode Island | 0 - 1 | May 15, 2025 |
| Rhode Island | Birmingham Legion | 2 - 0 | August 31, 2024 |
| Birmingham Legion | Rhode Island | 1 - 3 | July 18, 2024 |
Birmingham Legion Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 26 | Away | Louisville City | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 5, 26 | Away | Miami FC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 3, 26 | Home | Detroit City | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jun 21, 26 | Home | Loudoun United | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 17, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 14, 26 | Home | Las Vegas Lights | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Rhode Island Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Hartford Athletic | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 9, 26 | Away | Sacramento Republic | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Orange County SC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 13, 26 | Away | Loudoun United | 1 - 4 | Win |
| May 30, 26 | Away | Indy Eleven | 1 - 0 | Loss |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rhode Island | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 22 |
| 23 | Birmingham Legion | 16 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 14 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.21% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Rhode Island to win
This prediction indicates that Rhode Island has a 49.59% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.29 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.35% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.64% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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