Championship
Match Analysis
Bolton
Stoke City
Bolton
W
W
L
L
L
L
Stoke City
W
W
D
W
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The match features Bolton with a modest quality edge, but Stoke City arrives with strong recent form and has historically dominated this fixture, making the contest closely balanced. The model predicts a 37% chance of an away win for Stoke City, which is notably more confident than what the current market odds imply. Additionally, the model sees a 55% chance that both teams will score, aligning with the market's view that goals are likely. Finally, it suggests a slight edge toward over 2.5 total goals (53%), a perspective that is moderately more optimistic than the market odds.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | Stoke City | 0 - 1 | July 30, 2024 |
| Bolton | Stoke City | 0 - 0 | December 29, 2018 |
| Stoke City | Bolton | 2 - 0 | October 2, 2018 |
| Stoke City | Bolton | 2 - 2 | May 13, 2012 |
| Bolton | Stoke City | 5 - 0 | November 6, 2011 |
| Stoke City | Bolton | 2 - 0 | January 15, 2011 |
Bolton Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 26 | Away | Norwich | 3 - 4 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Cardiff | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 8, 26 | Home | West Ham | 2 - 3 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Millwall | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 1, 26 | Away | Sheffield Utd | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Lincoln | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Stoke City Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 26 | Home | Sheffield Utd | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Watford | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Sep 8, 26 | Away | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 5, 26 | Home | Charlton | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 1, 26 | Home | Norwich | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | Wolves | 4 - 1 | Loss |
Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
Predictions
Stoke City to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Stoke City has a 37.34% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.73 %Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Odds Comparison
Subscribe to compare bookmaker odds
View plans
Comments