Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Boston River
Progreso
Boston River
L
L
D
W
D
W
Progreso
L
W
W
L
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | Boston River | 0 - 1 | March 22, 2026 |
| Boston River | Progreso | 2 - 1 | August 31, 2025 |
| Progreso | Boston River | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2025 |
| Progreso | Boston River | 2 - 2 | March 9, 2025 |
| Boston River | Progreso | 1 - 0 | October 16, 2024 |
| Progreso | Boston River | 1 - 0 | April 13, 2024 |
Boston River Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Liverpool Montevideo | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Cerro | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Albion FC | 2 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 14, 26 | Home | Danubio | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Club Nacional | 1 - 2 | Win |
Progreso Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Cerro | 1 - 3 | Loss |
| Sep 7, 26 | Away | Albion FC | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Danubio | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Club Nacional | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Deportivo Maldonado | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Central Espanol | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Boston River | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 16 | Progreso | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 22 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.51% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Boston River to win
This prediction indicates that Boston River has a 52.37% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.99 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.97% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.22% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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