First League
Match Analysis
Botev Plovdiv
Spartak Varna
Botev Plovdiv
W
L
D
W
L
W
Spartak Varna
W
W
D
W
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, Botev Plovdiv has dominated their meetings with Spartak Varna. The model predicts a home win with a 59% probability, which is notably higher than what the current market odds suggest. The prediction also leans toward 'Over 1.5 goals' with a 57% chance, flagged as a sure tip and aligns closely with the market's strong favor for a game with more than one goal overall. Additionally, the model sees a 53% chance that both teams will score and a 54% chance of 'Over 2.5 goals,' both of which are slightly more optimistic than the market odds imply.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Plovdiv | Spartak Varna | 1 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| Botev Plovdiv | Spartak Varna | 5 - 0 | April 4, 2026 |
| Botev Plovdiv | Spartak Varna | 1 - 0 | January 28, 2026 |
| Spartak Varna | Botev Plovdiv | 3 - 2 | October 24, 2025 |
| Spartak Varna | Botev Plovdiv | 2 - 1 | May 18, 2025 |
| Botev Plovdiv | Spartak Varna | 3 - 2 | May 4, 2025 |
Botev Plovdiv Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Cherno More Varna | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 27, 26 | Away | CSKA Sofia | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 21, 26 | Home | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Beroe | 4 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Spartak Varna | 1 - 0 | Win |
Spartak Varna Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 26 | Home | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Cherno More Varna | 0 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | CSKA 1948 | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Dobrudzha | 7 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 8, 26 | Home | Nesebar | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Botev Plovdiv | 1 - 0 | Loss |
First League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Spartak Varna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.79% likelihood that both Botev Plovdiv and Spartak Varna will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Botev Plovdiv to win
This prediction indicates that Botev Plovdiv has a 58.92% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 22.79 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.58% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.64% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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