First League
Match Analysis
Botev Vratsa
Slavia Sofia
Botev Vratsa
L
L
D
W
D
W
Slavia Sofia
D
L
D
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The match features Botev Vratsa with a modest quality edge over Slavia Sofia, but this is countered by Botev Vratsa's poor recent form and Slavia Sofia's moderate recent form along with a rest advantage. Despite recent meetings between these teams tending to end in draws with plenty of goals, the model predicts a home win with a 45% probability, which is roughly in line with what the market odds imply for this outcome. The model also sees a 51% chance that both teams will score and suggests the game will stay under 2.5 goals, leaning slightly more towards a lower-scoring match than the market odds indicate.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | 1 - 1 | April 26, 2026 |
| Botev Vratsa | Slavia Sofia | 0 - 1 | November 24, 2025 |
| Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | 3 - 3 | October 11, 2025 |
| Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | 2 - 2 | July 20, 2025 |
| Botev Vratsa | Slavia Sofia | 2 - 1 | May 25, 2025 |
| Slavia Sofia | Botev Vratsa | 4 - 2 | April 14, 2025 |
Botev Vratsa Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 26 | Away | Ludogorets | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | CSKA 1948 | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | Cherno More Varna | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 10, 26 | Home | Arda Kardzhali | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 3, 26 | Home | Beitar Jerusalem | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 1, 26 | Home | Spartak Pleven | 2 - 1 | Win |
Slavia Sofia Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 26 | Home | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 24, 26 | Away | Arda Kardzhali | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 20, 26 | Home | CSKA Sofia | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Montana | 7 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 8, 26 | Home | Slatina | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Septemvri Sofia | 2 - 3 | Win |
First League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 |
Predictions
Botev Vratsa to win
This prediction indicates that Botev Vratsa has a 44.93% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.13 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.73% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.23% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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