Caen vs Aubagne Thursday 20th August 2026 09:45 PM football predictions.

National 1

Aug. 20, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Caen Aubagne

Caen D W W L W L

Aubagne D L W D L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Aubagne	Caen	3 - 1	May 15, 2026
Caen	Aubagne	3 - 0	August 8, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 31, 26	Home	Dieppe	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 25, 26	Home	Al Wakrah	4 - 1	Win
Jul 18, 26	Home	Laval	4 - 2	Win
Jul 15, 26	Home	Gobelins	3 - 4	Loss
Jul 9, 26	Away	Rennes	1 - 2	Win
May 15, 26	Away	Aubagne	3 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 24, 26	Home	SC Bastia	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 11, 26	Away	Montpellier	3 - 2	Loss
May 15, 26	Home	Caen	3 - 1	Win
May 9, 26	Away	Gobelins	1 - 1	Draw
May 1, 26	Home	Stade Briochin	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 24, 26	Away	Rouen	3 - 1	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Aubagne	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Caen	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

This prediction indicates that Caen has a 45.15% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.45 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.79% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.94% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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