Caernarfon Town vs Colwyn Bay Friday 14th August 2026 09:45 PM football predictions.

Premier League

Caernarfon Town

Aug. 15, 2026 4 weeks, 1 day ago

3 – 0

Full Time

Colwyn Bay

Match Analysis

Caernarfon Town Colwyn Bay

Caernarfon Town L W L L W W

Colwyn Bay D W W L D W

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Caernarfon Town holds a modest quality edge over Colwyn Bay, and has historically dominated recent meetings between the two sides. The model predicts a home win with a 43% probability, which is notably less confident than what the current market odds imply. The model also sees a good chance that both teams will score and that there will be more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals in the match, aligning closely with the market's view on these points.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Colwyn Bay	Caernarfon Town	0 - 2	April 3, 2026
Caernarfon Town	Colwyn Bay	3 - 0	February 27, 2026
Caernarfon Town	Colwyn Bay	1 - 2	December 27, 2025
Colwyn Bay	Caernarfon Town	1 - 0	October 4, 2025
Caernarfon Town	Colwyn Bay	2 - 1	December 31, 2023
Colwyn Bay	Caernarfon Town	0 - 4	August 13, 2023

Caernarfon Town Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 7, 26	Home	Penybont	1 - 2	Loss
Aug 2, 26	Away	GAP Connah S Quay FC	1 - 2	Win
Jul 16, 26	Away	FC Levadia Tallinn	5 - 0	Loss
Jul 9, 26	Home	FC Levadia Tallinn	0 - 5	Loss
Jun 20, 26	Away	Glentoran	1 - 2	Win
Apr 18, 26	Home	Penybont	2 - 0	Win

Colwyn Bay Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Aug 7, 26	Away	Ammanford AFC	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 31, 26	Home	Trefelin	2 - 0	Win
Jul 25, 26	Home	Bootle	1 - 0	Win
Jul 14, 26	Away	Marine	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 11, 26	Home	Altrincham	2 - 2	Draw
Jul 6, 26	Home	Rhyl	3 - 2	Win

Premier League Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
8	Colwyn Bay	2	1	1	0	4	2	+2	4
11	Caernarfon Town	2	1	0	1	3	3	0	3

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.75% likelihood that both Caernarfon Town and Colwyn Bay will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Caernarfon Town to win

This prediction indicates that Caernarfon Town has a 42.86% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.35 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.97% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Correct Prediction! ✅

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.61% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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Odds Comparison

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