Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
L
D
D
W
L
W
Liverpool Montevideo
W
L
D
W
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
There is a modest strength advantage for Liverpool Montevideo over Central Espanol, though Central Espanol have been in poor recent form compared to Liverpool Montevideo's moderate form. Despite recent meetings between these sides being fairly even and goal-heavy, the model predicts a home win with a 35% probability, which is notably less confident than what the current market odds suggest. The model also sees the game likely finishing with under 1.5 goals and not both teams scoring, views that contrast with the market's leaning toward a higher-scoring match.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool Montevideo | Central Espanol | 3 - 3 | March 24, 2026 |
| Central Espanol | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 - 2 | March 21, 2015 |
| Liverpool Montevideo | Central Espanol | 3 - 1 | September 27, 2014 |
| Liverpool Montevideo | Central Espanol | 1 - 1 | April 6, 2013 |
| Central Espanol | Liverpool Montevideo | 0 - 2 | October 14, 2012 |
Central Espanol Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Cerro Largo | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Boston River | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 6, 26 | Home | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 1, 26 | Away | Penarol | 0 - 1 | Win |
| May 24, 26 | Away | Cerro | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| May 17, 26 | Home | Defensor Sporting | 2 - 1 | Win |
Liverpool Montevideo Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Cerro | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jun 8, 26 | Home | Cerro Largo | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 1, 26 | Away | Boston River | 0 - 1 | Win |
| May 22, 26 | Home | Racing Montevideo | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| May 16, 26 | Away | Penarol | 2 - 1 | Loss |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Central Espanol | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 27 | 26 | +1 | 32 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 23 | +2 | 28 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.92% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Central Espanol to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Central Espanol has a 35.28% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.35 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.3% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 64.14% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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