Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Cerro
Penarol
Cerro
W
W
D
L
W
W
Penarol
W
W
L
D
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | Penarol | 0 - 1 | June 7, 2026 |
| Penarol | Cerro | 3 - 1 | March 21, 2026 |
| Cerro | Penarol | 2 - 0 | October 25, 2025 |
| Penarol | Cerro | 2 - 0 | June 28, 2025 |
| Penarol | Cerro | 3 - 1 | April 27, 2025 |
| Cerro | Penarol | 0 - 5 | September 22, 2024 |
Cerro Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | Progreso | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 29, 26 | Away | Boston River | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 21, 26 | Away | Liverpool Montevideo | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Albion FC | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Away | Danubio | 0 - 1 | Win |
Penarol Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Albion FC | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Danubio | 0 - 4 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Club Nacional | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Deportivo Maldonado | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Central Espanol | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Wanderers | 5 - 1 | Win |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 49 | 23 | +26 | 56 |
| 13 | Cerro | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 32 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 57.12% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Penarol to win
This prediction indicates that Penarol has a 55.67% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 24.91 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.61% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.15% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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