Cerro vs Racing Montevideo Sunday 19th July 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Cerro Racing Montevideo

Cerro L L W L L L

Racing Montevideo D D D W L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Racing Montevideo	Cerro	1 - 0	March 8, 2026
Cerro	Racing Montevideo	1 - 2	August 10, 2025
Racing Montevideo	Cerro	0 - 1	February 8, 2025
Cerro	Racing Montevideo	1 - 1	October 20, 2024
Racing Montevideo	Cerro	1 - 1	April 19, 2024
Racing Montevideo	Cerro	0 - 1	December 7, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 7, 26	Home	Penarol	0 - 1	Loss
May 29, 26	Away	Cerro Largo	2 - 0	Loss
May 24, 26	Home	Central Espanol	1 - 0	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Boston River	4 - 1	Loss
May 10, 26	Away	Club Nacional	4 - 0	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	Deportivo Maldonado	0 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 6, 26	Away	Central Espanol	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Home	Defensor Sporting	0 - 0	Draw
May 22, 26	Away	Liverpool Montevideo	0 - 0	Draw
May 17, 26	Home	Cerro Largo	1 - 0	Win
May 9, 26	Away	Central Espanol	2 - 0	Loss
May 3, 26	Home	Atletico Torque	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Racing Montevideo	19	10	7	2	25	15	+10	37
16	Cerro	19	3	4	12	10	31	-21	13

This prediction suggests that there is a 57.21% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Racing Montevideo has a 41.54% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 35.67 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 59.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.29% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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