Charlton vs Derby Saturday 15th August 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Charlton Derby

Charlton W L W L D W

Derby W L L W L W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Charlton	Derby	1 - 2	January 20, 2026
Derby	Charlton	1 - 1	September 30, 2025
Derby	Charlton	1 - 2	February 27, 2024
Charlton	Derby	0 - 1	February 3, 2024
Derby	Charlton	2 - 0	February 18, 2023
Charlton	Derby	1 - 0	August 6, 2022

Charlton Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 28, 26	Away	Colchester	0 - 2	Win
Jul 25, 26	Away	AFC Wimbledon	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Away	Gillingham	0 - 1	Win
Jul 18, 26	Away	Folkestone Invicta	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 10, 26	Away	Maribor	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 3, 26	Away	Dartford	0 - 1	Win

Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 31, 26	Away	Mansfield Town	1 - 3	Win
Jul 28, 26	Home	Valencia	1 - 2	Loss
Jul 24, 26	Away	SC Freiburg	3 - 1	Loss
Jul 17, 26	Away	Alfreton Town	0 - 2	Win
May 2, 26	Home	Sheffield Utd	1 - 2	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	QPR	2 - 3	Win

Championship Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Derby	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Charlton	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 52.29% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Charlton to win or Draw

This prediction indicates that Charlton has a 38.13% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.81 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 53.88% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 59.22% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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