National League - North
Match Analysis
Chester
Merthyr Town
Chester
W
W
W
W
D
W
Merthyr Town
D
D
L
W
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | Chester | 1 - 2 | March 10, 2026 |
| Chester | Merthyr Town | 2 - 2 | October 4, 2025 |
Chester Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Spalding United | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 18, 26 | Away | Darlington 1883 | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | King's Lynn Town | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Chorley | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Crewe | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 28, 26 | Away | Nantwich Town | 0 - 3 | Win |
Merthyr Town Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | South Shields | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 18, 26 | Home | AFC Telford United | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Spennymoor Town | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Hednesford Town | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Worcester City | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 28, 26 | Home | Swansea | 3 - 0 | Win |
National League - North Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 | Merthyr Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.06% likelihood that both Chester and Merthyr Town will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Chester to win
This prediction indicates that Chester has a 63.08% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.13 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 60.13% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.93% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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