Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Club Nacional
Defensor Sporting
Club Nacional
D
D
W
W
L
L
Defensor Sporting
W
D
L
D
L
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | 2 - 1 | March 21, 2026 |
| Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | 1 - 1 | November 9, 2025 |
| Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | 2 - 1 | May 18, 2025 |
| Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 1 | September 21, 2024 |
| Defensor Sporting | Club Nacional | 3 - 3 | March 10, 2024 |
| Club Nacional | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 0 | December 4, 2023 |
Club Nacional Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Wanderers | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 6, 26 | Home | Juventud | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Penarol | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Progreso | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Boston River | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Defensor Sporting Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Deportivo Maldonado | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Central Espanol | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Atletico Torque | 1 - 3 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Cerro Largo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Liverpool Montevideo | 0 - 4 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Wanderers | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Club Nacional | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 40 | 36 | +4 | 43 |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 28 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 32 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 56.41% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Club Nacional to win
This prediction indicates that Club Nacional has a 54.84% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.35 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.08% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.67% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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