Serie B
Match Analysis
Criciuma
Operario-PR
Criciuma
L
L
W
L
L
D
Operario-PR
D
W
W
D
D
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The match features Criciuma with a modest quality edge over Operario-PR, but recent form tells a different story, as Criciuma have been in poor form while Operario-PR have shown moderate consistency. Despite Operario-PR's dominance in past meetings and the tendency for low-scoring games between these sides, the model predicts a home win with a 55% probability, which is notably higher than what the market odds suggest. The model also sees the game ending with fewer than 1.5 goals and no goals from both teams, aligning somewhat with the market's leaning toward lower-scoring outcomes but showing more confidence in these aspects than the odds imply.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR | Criciuma | 1 - 1 | May 24, 2026 |
| Operario-PR | Criciuma | 1 - 0 | August 2, 2025 |
| Criciuma | Operario-PR | 1 - 2 | April 5, 2025 |
| Criciuma | Operario-PR | 2 - 0 | August 17, 2022 |
| Operario-PR | Criciuma | 2 - 0 | May 7, 2022 |
| Operario-PR | Criciuma | 1 - 0 | November 5, 2019 |
Criciuma Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | Atletico Goianiense | 4 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 9, 26 | Home | Juventude | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 4, 26 | Home | Cuiaba | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | CRB | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Fortaleza EC | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 20, 26 | Away | Botafogo SP | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Operario-PR Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 26 | Away | Nautico Recife | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Sep 9, 26 | Home | CRB | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Londrina | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 31, 26 | Away | Fortaleza EC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Vila Nova | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 19, 26 | Away | Cuiaba | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Serie B Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Criciuma | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 25 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 36 | +3 | 44 |
Predictions
Criciuma to win
This prediction indicates that Criciuma has a 54.68% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.58 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.3% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Odds Comparison
Subscribe to compare bookmaker odds
View plans
Comments