Serie C - Girone C
Match Analysis
Crotone
Foggia
Crotone
D
D
L
W
W
L
Foggia
L
L
D
L
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model predicts a home win for Crotone with a 47% probability. Crotone is seen as the stronger team overall and has been in better recent form than Foggia, who have struggled defensively. Although Foggia have had more rest time, Crotone's attacking strength and the clear quality gap favor them. The model's confidence in a Crotone victory aligns closely with the market odds, which also suggest a solid chance for the home side to win.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone | Foggia | 3 - 1 | February 22, 2026 |
| Foggia | Crotone | 0 - 3 | October 11, 2025 |
| Crotone | Foggia | 3 - 2 | April 14, 2025 |
| Foggia | Crotone | 1 - 1 | November 30, 2024 |
| Foggia | Crotone | 2 - 1 | February 26, 2024 |
| Crotone | Foggia | 2 - 1 | October 21, 2023 |
Crotone Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 26 | Away | Casertana | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 3, 26 | Home | Audace Cerignola | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Apr 26, 26 | Home | Latina | 2 - 5 | Loss |
| Apr 19, 26 | Away | Casarano | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Apr 13, 26 | Home | Catania | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Apr 6, 26 | Away | Giugliano | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Foggia Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 26 | Home | Salernitana | 1 - 3 | Loss |
| Apr 19, 26 | Away | SS Monopoli | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Apr 12, 26 | Home | Siracusa | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Apr 4, 26 | Away | Nuova Cosenza | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Mar 29, 26 | Home | Trapani 1905 | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Mar 22, 26 | Away | Cavese | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Serie C - Girone C Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Foggia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Crotone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions
Crotone to win
This prediction indicates that Crotone has a 47.42% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.93 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.36% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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