Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Danubio
Penarol
Danubio
D
D
L
D
L
D
Penarol
D
W
W
W
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | Danubio | 1 - 1 | March 7, 2026 |
| Penarol | Danubio | 2 - 0 | October 5, 2025 |
| Danubio | Penarol | 0 - 1 | April 5, 2025 |
| Danubio | Penarol | 0 - 1 | October 16, 2024 |
| Penarol | Danubio | 2 - 0 | April 14, 2024 |
| Danubio | Penarol | 2 - 1 | November 19, 2023 |
Danubio Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Racing Montevideo | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 14, 26 | Away | Boston River | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Cerro | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Albion FC | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 24, 26 | Away | Atletico Torque | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Club Nacional | 0 - 0 | Draw |
Penarol Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Deportivo Maldonado | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Central Espanol | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 5, 26 | Home | Wanderers | 5 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Cerro Largo | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Boston River | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 21 | +21 | 50 |
| 15 | Danubio | 24 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 23 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.64% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Penarol to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Penarol has a 38.37% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.41 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.54% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 59.38% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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