Danubio vs Progreso Saturday 30th May 2026 09:00 PM football predictions.

Danubio Progreso

Danubio L L L W D D

Progreso L L L L L W

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Danubio	Progreso	2 - 2	February 28, 2026
Progreso	Danubio	1 - 0	August 24, 2025
Progreso	Danubio	0 - 1	May 31, 2025
Danubio	Progreso	1 - 1	February 23, 2025
Progreso	Danubio	0 - 0	October 12, 2024
Danubio	Progreso	1 - 1	April 6, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 18, 26	Away	Deportivo Maldonado	3 - 1	Loss
May 9, 26	Home	Albion FC	0 - 1	Loss
May 2, 26	Away	Liverpool Montevideo	3 - 0	Loss
Apr 25, 26	Away	Club Nacional	1 - 2	Win
Apr 19, 26	Home	Deportivo Maldonado	1 - 1	Draw
Apr 12, 26	Away	Central Espanol	2 - 2	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 23, 26	Home	Atletico Torque	1 - 2	Loss
May 16, 26	Away	Juventud	2 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Away	Atletico Torque	2 - 1	Loss
May 3, 26	Home	Cerro Largo	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 27, 26	Away	Defensor Sporting	1 - 0	Loss
Apr 18, 26	Home	Wanderers	2 - 1	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
14	Danubio	16	4	6	6	18	24	-6	18
16	Progreso	17	2	4	11	13	27	-14	10

This prediction suggests that there is a 53.66% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Danubio has a 41.86% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.91 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 55.58% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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