Primera División - Apertura
Match Analysis
Defensor Sporting
Cerro
Defensor Sporting
L
D
L
D
D
L
Cerro
W
W
L
L
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Historically, Defensor Sporting has had the upper hand in matches between these two teams. Despite this, the model predicts a home win with a 54% probability, factoring in Defensor Sporting's modest quality edge but also their poor recent form, contrasted with Cerro's moderate form and recent defensive struggles. The market odds imply slightly less confidence in a home victory than the model does. Additionally, the model sees the match as likely to stay under 1.5 goals, aligning somewhat with the market's leaning toward a lower-scoring game.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cerro | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 0 | April 5, 2026 |
| Cerro | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 0 | October 11, 2025 |
| Defensor Sporting | Cerro | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2025 |
| Defensor Sporting | Cerro | 3 - 2 | April 14, 2025 |
| Cerro | Defensor Sporting | 1 - 1 | September 7, 2024 |
| Defensor Sporting | Cerro | 5 - 0 | February 25, 2024 |
Defensor Sporting Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 26 | Home | Liverpool Montevideo | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 13, 26 | Away | Cerro Largo | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Cruzeiro | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 7, 26 | Home | Boston River | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 30, 26 | Away | Racing Montevideo | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| May 24, 26 | Home | Penarol | 0 - 2 | Loss |
Cerro Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Racing Montevideo | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Liverpool Montevideo | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jun 7, 26 | Home | Penarol | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| May 29, 26 | Away | Cerro Largo | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| May 24, 26 | Home | Central Espanol | 1 - 0 | Win |
| May 16, 26 | Away | Boston River | 4 - 1 | Loss |
Primera División - Apertura Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 24 |
| 15 | Cerro | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 19 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 54.81% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Defensor Sporting to win
This prediction indicates that Defensor Sporting has a 53.85% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.33 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.97% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.58% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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