Defensor Sporting vs Danubio Monday 28th September 2026 12:00 AM football predictions.

Primera División - Apertura

Sept. 28, 2026 VS

Defensor Sporting Danubio

Defensor Sporting L W D L D L

Danubio D D L L D D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Danubio	Defensor Sporting	0 - 0	March 26, 2026
Defensor Sporting	Danubio	2 - 1	September 19, 2025
Danubio	Defensor Sporting	1 - 1	March 27, 2025
Danubio	Defensor Sporting	1 - 1	October 5, 2024
Defensor Sporting	Danubio	1 - 0	March 30, 2024
Defensor Sporting	Danubio	0 - 2	December 7, 2023

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Away	Club Nacional	3 - 2	Loss
Sep 13, 26	Home	Deportivo Maldonado	1 - 0	Win
Sep 6, 26	Away	Central Espanol	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 29, 26	Home	Atletico Torque	1 - 3	Loss
Aug 22, 26	Away	Cerro Largo	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 16, 26	Home	Liverpool Montevideo	0 - 4	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 20, 26	Home	Wanderers	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 13, 26	Away	Juventud	1 - 1	Draw
Sep 5, 26	Home	Penarol	0 - 4	Loss
Aug 29, 26	Away	Progreso	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 23, 26	Home	Racing Montevideo	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 14, 26	Away	Boston River	0 - 0	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
12	Defensor Sporting	29	7	11	11	25	33	-8	32
15	Danubio	29	4	14	11	24	38	-14	26

This prediction suggests that there is a 55.87% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Defensor Sporting has a 42.25% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 34.00 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 63.63% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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