Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Wednesday 05th August 2026 02:15 AM football predictions.

Deportes Tolima Independiente Medellin

Deportes Tolima D L L L W W

Independiente Medellin W D L W D W

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Independiente Medellin	Deportes Tolima	2 - 2	January 28, 2026
Deportes Tolima	Independiente Medellin	2 - 3	September 27, 2025
Independiente Medellin	Deportes Tolima	2 - 1	June 15, 2025
Deportes Tolima	Independiente Medellin	1 - 3	June 4, 2025
Independiente Medellin	Deportes Tolima	0 - 1	May 16, 2025
Independiente Medellin	Deportes Tolima	0 - 1	September 22, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 27, 26	Away	Universitario	0 - 0	Draw
May 23, 26	Away	Atletico Nacional	3 - 1	Loss
May 19, 26	Away	Coquimbo Unido	3 - 0	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	Atletico Nacional	0 - 1	Loss
May 13, 26	Away	Deportivo Pasto	0 - 2	Win
May 9, 26	Home	Deportivo Pasto	1 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 2, 26	Home	Cucuta	2 - 1	Win
May 29, 26	Away	Leones FC	1 - 1	Draw
May 27, 26	Away	Estudiantes L.P.	1 - 0	Loss
May 21, 26	Away	Cusco	2 - 3	Win
May 16, 26	Away	Orsomarso	1 - 1	Draw
May 11, 26	Home	Fortaleza FC	1 - 0	Win

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
3	Deportes Tolima	23	10	7	6	31	21	+10	37
11	Independiente Medellin	19	7	5	7	26	24	+2	26

This prediction indicates that Deportes Tolima has a 45.53% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 29.05 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 52.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.24% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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