Championship
Match Analysis
Derby
Cardiff
Derby
D
L
W
L
L
W
Cardiff
W
W
W
L
L
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | Derby | 2 - 1 | January 25, 2025 |
| Derby | Cardiff | 1 - 0 | September 14, 2024 |
| Derby | Cardiff | 0 - 1 | May 7, 2022 |
| Cardiff | Derby | 1 - 0 | March 1, 2022 |
| Cardiff | Derby | 4 - 0 | March 2, 2021 |
| Derby | Cardiff | 1 - 1 | October 28, 2020 |
Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 26 | Away | Rotherham | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Burton Albion | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 31, 26 | Away | Mansfield Town | 1 - 3 | Win |
| Jul 28, 26 | Home | Valencia | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 24, 26 | Away | SC Freiburg | 3 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 17, 26 | Away | Alfreton Town | 0 - 2 | Win |
Cardiff Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | AS Roma | 4 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Forest Green | 1 - 5 | Win |
| Jul 14, 26 | Away | Cork City | 1 - 6 | Win |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | FC Midtjylland | 0 - 6 | Loss |
| May 2, 26 | Away | Mansfield Town | 5 - 4 | Loss |
| Apr 25, 26 | Home | Northampton | 5 - 1 | Win |
Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | Cardiff | None | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
| None | Derby | None | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 56.58% likelihood that both Derby and Cardiff will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Cardiff to win
This prediction indicates that Cardiff has a 45.98% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 25.26 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.97% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.35% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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