Championship
Match Analysis
Derby
Wrexham
Derby
D
L
L
L
W
L
Wrexham
W
L
D
D
W
L
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Derby has been struggling with poor recent form, while Wrexham arrives with moderate form and a clear quality gap in their favor. Despite this, the model predicts Wrexham will win with a 36% probability, which is notably lower than what the market odds suggest for an away victory. The model also sees a 50% chance that both teams will score and a 50% chance that more than 2.5 goals will be scored, aligning closely with the market view on those outcomes.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | January 4, 2026 |
| Wrexham | Derby | 1 - 1 | September 27, 2025 |
Derby Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 26 | Away | Burnley | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 12, 26 | Home | Birmingham | 1 - 2 | Loss |
| Sep 9, 26 | Home | West Brom | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | West Ham | 3 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 1, 26 | Away | Portsmouth | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Swansea | 0 - 3 | Loss |
Wrexham Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 26 | Home | Southampton | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Sep 11, 26 | Away | West Ham | 6 - 0 | Loss |
| Sep 8, 26 | Home | Burnley | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Swansea | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Sep 2, 26 | Away | Millwall | 0 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 28, 26 | Home | Birmingham | 1 - 2 | Loss |
Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
Predictions
Wrexham to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Wrexham has a 36.42% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.03 %Most Likely Scorelines
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