El Nacional vs Gualaceo SC Wednesday 22nd July 2026 11:00 PM football predictions.

El Nacional Gualaceo SC

El Nacional L L D L L L

Gualaceo SC W W L W L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Gualaceo SC	El Nacional	2 - 0	May 2, 2026
El Nacional	Gualaceo SC	4 - 2	November 12, 2023
Gualaceo SC	El Nacional	3 - 4	June 4, 2023
El Nacional	Gualaceo SC	4 - 2	October 7, 2021
Gualaceo SC	El Nacional	1 - 0	August 11, 2021
El Nacional	Gualaceo SC	1 - 1	June 17, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 8, 26	Home	Cumbayá	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 2, 26	Away	Atletico FC	3 - 0	Loss
Jun 11, 26	Home	Vargas Torres	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 7, 26	Away	Deportivo Cuenca Juniors	4 - 1	Loss
May 31, 26	Home	LDU Portoviejo	0 - 1	Loss
May 24, 26	Away	San Antonio	1 - 0	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 1, 26	Away	Cuniburo	1 - 2	Win
Jun 10, 26	Home	Cumbayá	1 - 0	Win
Jun 6, 26	Away	LDU Portoviejo	1 - 0	Loss
May 30, 26	Home	Vargas Torres	1 - 0	Win
May 22, 26	Away	Atletico FC	2 - 1	Loss
May 16, 26	Home	San Antonio	1 - 1	Draw

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
4	Gualaceo SC	15	6	5	4	13	10	+3	23
12	El Nacional	16	0	4	12	9	27	-18	4

This prediction suggests that there is a 51.39% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that El Nacional has a 37.78% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.22 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 57.33% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 56.18% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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