El Porvenir vs Fénix Tuesday 04th August 2026 09:00 PM football predictions.

Match Analysis

El Porvenir Fénix

El Porvenir L L D D D L

Fénix D L W L W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Despite El Porvenir's poor recent form, the model predicts they will win with a 52% chance, due to a clear quality gap in their favor and their historical dominance over Fénix, where goals have been hard to come by. Fénix, while having moderate recent form, have shown defensive struggles, which may further benefit El Porvenir. The market odds also suggest a slight edge to the home side, but the model's confidence is notably higher than what the odds imply. Additionally, the model sees a lower chance of goals, aligning with past tight defensive encounters and Fénix's recent defensive issues.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Fénix	El Porvenir	0 - 0	April 22, 2026
Fénix	El Porvenir	0 - 1	April 27, 2013
El Porvenir	Fénix	2 - 0	November 4, 2012

El Porvenir Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 28, 26	Away	Sportivo Barracas	3 - 2	Loss
Jul 18, 26	Away	Mercedes	2 - 0	Loss
Jul 11, 26	Home	Lujan	0 - 0	Draw
Jul 5, 26	Away	General Lamadrid	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 27, 26	Home	Leones de Rosario	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 13, 26	Home	Atletico Atlas	0 - 1	Loss

Fénix Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 27, 26	Home	Yupanqui	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 17, 26	Home	Puerto Nuevo	0 - 1	Loss
Jul 13, 26	Home	Sportivo Barracas	2 - 1	Win
Jul 5, 26	Away	Lujan	2 - 1	Loss
Jun 29, 26	Home	General Lamadrid	3 - 1	Win
Jun 15, 26	Home	Leones de Rosario	0 - 1	Loss

Primera C Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
20	El Porvenir	21	4	13	4	17	18	-1	25
28	Fénix	21	4	6	11	13	23	-10	18

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 62.36% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

El Porvenir to win

This prediction indicates that El Porvenir has a 51.55% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.19 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 58.54% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.62% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions View plans

Odds Comparison

Subscribe to compare bookmaker odds View plans

Comments

[[ comment.user.username ]]

This comment has been removed