Equatorial Guinea vs Sierra Leone Monday 28th September 2026 07:00 PM football predictions.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

Sept. 28, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone

Equatorial Guinea L D W L L L

Sierra Leone L W W L W D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Sierra Leone	Equatorial Guinea	0 - 1	January 20, 2022

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 9, 26	Home	Comoros	0 - 1	Loss
Mar 31, 26	Home	Madagascar	1 - 1	Draw
Mar 25, 26	Away	Kyrgyzstan	0 - 1	Win
Dec 31, 25	Home	Algeria	1 - 3	Loss
Dec 28, 25	Home	Sudan	0 - 1	Loss
Dec 24, 25	Away	Burkina Faso	2 - 1	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 9, 26	Away	Liberia	3 - 1	Loss
Jun 6, 26	Home	Liberia	1 - 0	Win
Oct 12, 25	Away	Djibouti	1 - 2	Win
Oct 8, 25	Home	Burkina Faso	0 - 1	Loss
Sep 9, 25	Home	Ethiopia	2 - 0	Win
Sep 4, 25	Away	Guinea-Bissau	1 - 1	Draw

This prediction suggests that there is a 54.59% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Equatorial Guinea has a 43.94% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.84 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.21% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.27% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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