Ethiopia vs Malawi Tuesday 09th June 2026 03:00 PM football predictions.

Ethiopia Malawi

Ethiopia W W W L W L

Malawi L L D W D L

STRENGTH

POSSESSION

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Ethiopia	Malawi	1 - 0	June 6, 2026
Ethiopia	Malawi	0 - 0	June 20, 2023
Malawi	Ethiopia	2 - 1	June 5, 2022
Ethiopia	Malawi	4 - 0	March 17, 2021

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 6, 26	Home	Malawi	1 - 0	Win
Mar 31, 26	Home	Sao Tome and Principe	1 - 0	Win
Mar 27, 26	Away	Sao Tome and Principe	0 - 3	Win
Oct 12, 25	Away	Burkina Faso	3 - 1	Loss
Oct 8, 25	Home	Guinea-Bissau	1 - 0	Win
Sep 9, 25	Away	Sierra Leone	2 - 0	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 6, 26	Away	Ethiopia	1 - 0	Loss
Mar 31, 26	Away	Botswana	1 - 0	Loss
Mar 28, 26	Away	Zambia U23	0 - 0	Draw
Nov 18, 25	Away	Lesotho	0 - 1	Win
Nov 15, 25	Away	Lesotho	0 - 0	Draw
Oct 13, 25	Away	Sao Tome and Principe	1 - 0	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
170	Ethiopia	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
270	Malawi	3	0	1	2	0	2	-2	1

This prediction suggests that there is a 60.09% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Ethiopia has a 44.18% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.68 %

Correct Prediction! ✅

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.81% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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