EFL Trophy
Match Analysis
Exeter City
Oxford United
Exeter City
L
L
D
L
W
L
Oxford United
D
L
L
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | Oxford United | 3 - 1 | January 11, 2025 |
| Oxford United | Exeter City | 0 - 1 | July 24, 2024 |
| Exeter City | Oxford United | 1 - 2 | April 27, 2024 |
| Oxford United | Exeter City | 3 - 0 | September 23, 2023 |
| Oxford United | Exeter City | 0 - 1 | January 1, 2023 |
| Oxford United | Exeter City | 4 - 1 | November 26, 2022 |
Exeter City Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 10, 26 | Away | Plymouth | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Bristol City | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 31, 26 | Away | Torquay | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Weston-super-Mare | 0 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Truro City | 1 - 0 | Loss |
Oxford United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Leyton Orient | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Ipswich | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 28, 26 | Home | Crawley Town | 3 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Barnet | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 21, 26 | Away | Aldershot Town | 1 - 3 | Win |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 51.17% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Exeter City to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that Exeter City has a 40.39% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.80 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.74% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.02% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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