Farense vs Chaves Sunday 04th October 2026 01:00 PM football predictions.

Segunda Liga

Farense

Oct. 4, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Chaves

Match Analysis

Farense Chaves

Farense D L D W W L

Chaves W L D L L L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Why this prediction? AI insight

Farense has shown moderate form recently, while Chaves has struggled in their latest matches. Despite Chaves's historical dominance in past meetings between the two teams, the model sees Farense as having a modest quality edge and creating more shooting chances. The model predicts a home win with a 50% probability, which aligns closely with the idea that Farense may have the upper hand on this occasion, although it reflects more confidence than typical market odds might imply.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Chaves	Farense	2 - 0	February 22, 2026
Farense	Chaves	0 - 2	September 28, 2025
Chaves	Farense	1 - 1	February 4, 2024
Farense	Chaves	5 - 0	August 26, 2023
Farense	Chaves	1 - 2	April 30, 2022
Chaves	Farense	2 - 1	December 18, 2021

Farense Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 13, 26	Away	AVS	0 - 0	Draw
Aug 30, 26	Away	Sporting CP B	2 - 1	Loss
Aug 24, 26	Home	Felgueiras 1932	1 - 1	Draw
Aug 16, 26	Away	FC Porto B	1 - 3	Win
Aug 9, 26	Home	Torreense	2 - 1	Win
Aug 1, 26	Home	Fulham	1 - 2	Loss

Chaves Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Sep 13, 26	Home	Feirense	1 - 0	Win
Aug 30, 26	Away	Felgueiras 1932	2 - 1	Loss
Aug 23, 26	Home	AVS	2 - 2	Draw
Aug 15, 26	Away	Sporting CP B	1 - 0	Loss
Aug 8, 26	Home	Academica	1 - 4	Loss
Aug 1, 26	Away	Guimaraes	2 - 0	Loss

Segunda Liga Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
10	Farense	5	2	2	1	7	5	+2	8
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	5	9	-4	4

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - No

This prediction suggests that there is a 55.27% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

Farense to win

This prediction indicates that Farense has a 48.06% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 30.43 %

Under 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 62.04% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

Under 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 61.23% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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