J3 League
Match Analysis
FC Ryukyu
Kitakyushu
FC Ryukyu
D
L
W
D
W
D
Kitakyushu
D
D
D
L
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The match features a modest quality edge in favor of Kitakyushu, but their recent form is poor, contrasting with FC Ryukyu's moderate recent performance. Despite Kitakyushu's historical dominance in past meetings, those games tended to be low-scoring, and FC Ryukyu's recent defensive struggles hint that goals might be scored. The model predicts a 37% chance of an away win, suggesting more confidence in Kitakyushu than the unavailable market odds might imply, and also sees a good chance (53%) that both teams will score, indicating an open, potentially competitive affair.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ryukyu | Kitakyushu | 0 - 2 | April 18, 2026 |
| Kitakyushu | FC Ryukyu | 1 - 0 | March 29, 2026 |
| Kitakyushu | FC Ryukyu | 2 - 1 | October 25, 2025 |
| FC Ryukyu | Kitakyushu | 0 - 1 | May 17, 2025 |
| FC Ryukyu | Kitakyushu | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2024 |
| Kitakyushu | FC Ryukyu | 2 - 0 | April 10, 2024 |
FC Ryukyu Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Osaka | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Away | Renofa Yamaguchi | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 17, 26 | Home | Urawa | 5 - 4 | Win |
| Jun 7, 26 | Away | Fukushima United | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 31, 26 | Away | Imabari | 1 - 2 | Win |
| May 23, 26 | Away | Sagan Tosu | 2 - 2 | Draw |
Kitakyushu Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 26 | Away | Tochigi SC | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 19, 26 | Home | Okinawa SV | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 15, 26 | Home | Kamatamare Sanuki | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Yokohama FC | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Avispa Fukuoka | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Jun 7, 26 | Away | Tochigi SC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
J3 League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kitakyushu | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | FC Ryukyu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 50.19% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.FC Ryukyu to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that FC Ryukyu has a 36.29% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.90 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.33% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 54.47% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
Subscribe to unlock scoreline predictions
View plans
Comments