USL Championship
Match Analysis
FC Tulsa
Sacramento Republic
FC Tulsa
L
D
W
W
L
L
Sacramento Republic
W
D
D
D
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tulsa | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 0 | August 6, 2026 |
| Sacramento Republic | FC Tulsa | 2 - 0 | March 8, 2026 |
| Sacramento Republic | FC Tulsa | 0 - 1 | June 8, 2025 |
| FC Tulsa | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 0 | March 29, 2025 |
| FC Tulsa | Sacramento Republic | 0 - 0 | June 23, 2024 |
| Sacramento Republic | FC Tulsa | 1 - 1 | April 14, 2024 |
FC Tulsa Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | Phoenix Rising | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | San Antonio | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Rhode Island | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Orange County SC | 1 - 5 | Win |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | New Mexico United | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Detroit City | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Sacramento Republic Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Home | Detroit City | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Sep 6, 26 | Away | Orange County SC | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 30, 26 | Away | Monterey Bay | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Aug 23, 26 | Home | Phoenix Rising | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Lexington | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0 - 0 | Draw |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sacramento Republic | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 20 | +10 | 36 |
| 10 | FC Tulsa | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 21 | +6 | 36 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 53.6% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.FC Tulsa to win or Draw
This prediction indicates that FC Tulsa has a 41.01% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.95 %Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 58.58% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 61.41% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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