First League
Match Analysis
FK Neftekhimik
PFC Sochi
FK Neftekhimik
L
L
W
L
W
L
PFC Sochi
W
W
L
W
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model sees PFC Sochi as the stronger side, with a clear quality gap in their favor and a history of dominating recent meetings against FK Neftekhimik. Despite FK Neftekhimik having a rest advantage and both teams showing moderate recent form, the model predicts an away win with a 53% probability, which is notably more confident than the market odds suggest. The model also expects PFC Sochi's recent creation of significantly more shooting chances to contribute to this outcome.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Neftekhimik | PFC Sochi | 1 - 1 | May 10, 2025 |
| PFC Sochi | FK Neftekhimik | 2 - 0 | February 8, 2025 |
| PFC Sochi | FK Neftekhimik | 3 - 2 | November 3, 2024 |
| PFC Sochi | FK Neftekhimik | 3 - 0 | January 22, 2023 |
FK Neftekhimik Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 26 | Home | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Nizhny Novgorod | 5 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Tekstilshchik | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 25, 26 | Away | Volga Ulyanovsk | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | Arsenal Tula | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 11, 26 | Home | Veles | 0 - 1 | Loss |
PFC Sochi Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Volga Ulyanovsk | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Torpedo Moskva | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Leningradets | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | Arsenal Tula | 5 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 19, 26 | Home | Spartak Kostroma | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 2 - 2 | Draw |
First League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | PFC Sochi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 15 | FK Neftekhimik | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 6 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 52.4% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
PFC Sochi to win
This prediction indicates that PFC Sochi has a 53.46% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.09 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 51.71% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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