Flamengo SP vs Independente SP Sunday 26th July 2026 11:00 PM football predictions.

Flamengo SP Independente SP

Flamengo SP W W W D W W

Independente SP W W W W W L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Flamengo SP	Independente SP	2 - 4	May 31, 2025
Independente SP	Flamengo SP	2 - 2	April 27, 2025

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 18, 26	Home	Matonense	3 - 1	Win
Jul 11, 26	Away	Matonense	0 - 1	Win
Jul 4, 26	Home	Gremio Osasco Audax	2 - 1	Win
Jun 28, 26	Away	Gremio Osasco Audax	0 - 0	Draw
Jun 20, 26	Away	Gremio Osasco Audax	0 - 1	Win
Jun 13, 26	Home	Paulínia FU	1 - 0	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 19, 26	Home	Sporting Paulinense	2 - 1	Win
Jul 12, 26	Away	Sporting Paulinense	0 - 1	Win
Jul 5, 26	Home	Tupa	2 - 0	Win
Jun 28, 26	Away	Tupa	0 - 2	Win
Jun 20, 26	Home	Grêmio Catanduvense	17 - 0	Win
Jun 13, 26	Away	Sao Carlos	2 - 0	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Independente SP	13	11	0	2	42	7	+35	33
3	Flamengo SP	14	10	3	1	19	8	+11	33

This prediction indicates that the football match is poised to end in a draw.

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.49% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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