Serie D
Match Analysis
Gama
Sao Jose
Gama
D
W
L
W
L
W
Sao Jose
D
L
W
D
W
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Both Gama and Sao Jose are coming into this match with moderate recent form, suggesting neither side is strongly favored by current momentum alone. Gama, however, holds a modest quality edge and has displayed strong attacking form recently. The model predicts a home win with a 61% probability, which is notably more confident than what the market odds imply. Additionally, the model sees a lower chance of both teams scoring and of the match exceeding 1.5 or 2.5 goals, aligning somewhat with the market odds for these secondary outcomes.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Jose | Gama | 1 - 1 | August 8, 2026 |
Gama Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Away | Sao Jose | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Home | America-RN | 3 - 2 | Win |
| Jul 19, 26 | Away | America-RN | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 12, 26 | Home | Porto Velho | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 4, 26 | Away | Porto Velho | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Jun 27, 26 | Home | Mixto | 1 - 0 | Win |
Sao Jose Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 26 | Home | Gama | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jul 26, 26 | Away | Treze | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Treze | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Jul 12, 26 | Away | Portuguesa RJ | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Portuguesa RJ | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jun 27, 26 | Away | Santa Catarina | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Serie D Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gama | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 13 | +19 | 39 |
| 20 | Sao Jose | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 57.16% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Gama to win
This prediction indicates that Gama has a 61.26% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 22.46 %Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 57.09% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 50.16% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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