Gnistan vs Mariehamn Saturday 11th July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Gnistan Mariehamn

Gnistan D D W W W L

Mariehamn L L L L L L

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Mariehamn	Gnistan	0 - 3	June 13, 2026
Mariehamn	Gnistan	2 - 5	August 9, 2025
Gnistan	Mariehamn	2 - 0	May 3, 2025
Gnistan	Mariehamn	2 - 1	September 15, 2024
Gnistan	Mariehamn	2 - 1	August 21, 2024
Mariehamn	Gnistan	1 - 1	May 26, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	VPS	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 23, 26	Away	FF Jaro	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 17, 26	Home	Lahti	1 - 0	Win
Jun 13, 26	Away	Mariehamn	0 - 3	Win
May 30, 26	Home	SJK	3 - 2	Win
May 23, 26	Away	Ilves	2 - 0	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Home	Inter Turku	0 - 2	Loss
Jun 23, 26	Home	HJK helsinki	0 - 4	Loss
Jun 18, 26	Away	AC Oulu	2 - 1	Loss
Jun 13, 26	Home	Gnistan	0 - 3	Loss
May 30, 26	Away	HJK helsinki	1 - 0	Loss
May 23, 26	Away	FF Jaro	3 - 0	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Gnistan	12	5	3	4	18	16	+2	18
12	Mariehamn	12	0	4	8	6	23	-17	4

This prediction suggests that there is a 50.56% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.

This prediction indicates that Gnistan has a 41.95% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 32.39 %

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