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Liga MX

July 19, 2026 1 week, 6 days from now VS

Match Analysis

Guadalajara Chivas Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas D L D W L D
Toluca L L L W L L
STRENGTH
SHOT CONVERSION
SHOTS ON TARGET
POSSESSION
SAVE RATE
ATTACKING POTENTIAL
DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL
EXPECTED GOALS
HEAD TO HEAD
WINS THE GAME
What do these metrics mean?
Strength
Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion
Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target
Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession
Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate
Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential
Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential
Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals
Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head
Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game
Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team Away Team Score Date
Toluca Guadalajara Chivas 2 - 0 February 28, 2026
Guadalajara Chivas Toluca 0 - 3 September 21, 2025
Toluca Guadalajara Chivas 2 - 1 February 16, 2025
Guadalajara Chivas Toluca 0 - 0 July 7, 2024
Toluca Guadalajara Chivas 0 - 0 May 12, 2024
Guadalajara Chivas Toluca 1 - 0 May 9, 2024

Guadalajara Chivas Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jul 4, 26 Away Correcaminos Uat 0 - 0 Draw
May 17, 26 Home Cruz Azul 1 - 2 Loss
May 14, 26 Away Cruz Azul 2 - 2 Draw
May 10, 26 Home Tigres UANL 2 - 0 Win
May 3, 26 Away Tigres UANL 3 - 1 Loss
Apr 26, 26 Home Club Tijuana 0 - 0 Draw

Toluca Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date Venue Opponent Score Result
Jul 4, 26 Away Cancún 1 - 0 Loss
May 10, 26 Away Pachuca 2 - 0 Loss
May 4, 26 Home Pachuca 0 - 1 Loss
Apr 26, 26 Home Leon 4 - 1 Win
Apr 23, 26 Away Mazatlán 4 - 3 Loss
Apr 19, 26 Away Club America 2 - 1 Loss

Liga MX Table

Pos Team MP W D L GF GA GD Pts
None Toluca None None None None None None None None
None Guadalajara Chivas None None None None None None None None

Predictions

Toluca to win
This prediction indicates that Toluca has a 48.91% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.14 %

Most Likely Scorelines

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