Guadalajara Chivas vs Toluca Sunday 19th July 2026 04:00 AM football predictions.

Guadalajara Chivas Toluca

Guadalajara Chivas D L D W L D

Toluca L L L W L L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

DEFENSIVE POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Toluca	Guadalajara Chivas	2 - 0	February 28, 2026
Guadalajara Chivas	Toluca	0 - 3	September 21, 2025
Toluca	Guadalajara Chivas	2 - 1	February 16, 2025
Guadalajara Chivas	Toluca	0 - 0	July 7, 2024
Toluca	Guadalajara Chivas	0 - 0	May 12, 2024
Guadalajara Chivas	Toluca	1 - 0	May 9, 2024

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Away	Correcaminos Uat	0 - 0	Draw
May 17, 26	Home	Cruz Azul	1 - 2	Loss
May 14, 26	Away	Cruz Azul	2 - 2	Draw
May 10, 26	Home	Tigres UANL	2 - 0	Win
May 3, 26	Away	Tigres UANL	3 - 1	Loss
Apr 26, 26	Home	Club Tijuana	0 - 0	Draw

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 4, 26	Away	Cancún	1 - 0	Loss
May 10, 26	Away	Pachuca	2 - 0	Loss
May 4, 26	Home	Pachuca	0 - 1	Loss
Apr 26, 26	Home	Leon	4 - 1	Win
Apr 23, 26	Away	Mazatlán	4 - 3	Loss
Apr 19, 26	Away	Club America	2 - 1	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
None	Toluca	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None
None	Guadalajara Chivas	None	None	None	None	None	None	None	None

This prediction indicates that Toluca has a 48.91% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 31.14 %

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