Victoria NPL
Match Analysis
Heidelberg United
Hume City
Heidelberg United
L
D
D
D
D
L
Hume City
W
L
L
L
D
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
Both Heidelberg United and Hume City are in poor recent form, but Heidelberg have shown stronger attacking play lately. The two teams are considered closely matched overall, and their past meetings have often ended in draws with many goals scored. The model predicts a home win with a 39% probability, which is notably less confident than what the current market odds imply. The model also sees a good chance of both teams scoring and for the match to have more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, aligning with the market’s inclination toward higher-scoring outcomes.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hume City | Heidelberg United | 2 - 1 | May 2, 2026 |
| Hume City | Heidelberg United | 0 - 1 | June 20, 2025 |
| Heidelberg United | Hume City | 5 - 1 | March 14, 2025 |
| Heidelberg United | Hume City | 1 - 1 | August 23, 2024 |
| Heidelberg United | Hume City | 1 - 1 | July 26, 2024 |
| Hume City | Heidelberg United | 2 - 2 | April 27, 2024 |
Heidelberg United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 26 | Away | Avondale | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 24, 26 | Home | Sunshine Georgies | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 18, 26 | Away | Altona Magic | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jul 11, 26 | Away | Melbourne City II | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Jul 3, 26 | Home | St. Albans Saints | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Jun 26, 26 | Home | Oakleigh Cannons | 0 - 1 | Loss |
Hume City Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 26 | Home | Melbourne City II | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 24, 26 | Away | St. Albans Saints | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Jul 18, 26 | Home | Oakleigh Cannons | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 10, 26 | Away | Preston Lions | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Jul 4, 26 | Home | Dandenong City | 0 - 0 | Draw |
| Jun 27, 26 | Away | Dandenong Thunder | 1 - 3 | Win |
Victoria NPL Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hume City | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 43 | 28 | +15 | 43 |
| 6 | Heidelberg United | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 34 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.13% likelihood that both Heidelberg United and Hume City will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Correct Prediction! ✅
Heidelberg United or Hume City to win
This prediction indicates that Heidelberg United has a 39.3% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.59 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.21% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Correct Prediction! ✅
Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.77% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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