Karpaty vs Yarud Mariupol' Thursday 02nd July 2026 05:00 PM football predictions.

Karpaty Yarud Mariupol'

Karpaty L W D L D W

Yarud Mariupol' D L W L L L

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
May 23, 26	Home	Zorya Luhansk	1 - 2	Loss
May 17, 26	Home	Veres Rivne	2 - 0	Win
May 12, 26	Away	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv	2 - 2	Draw
May 8, 26	Away	Kryvbas KR	1 - 0	Loss
May 2, 26	Home	LNZ Cherkasy	0 - 0	Draw
Apr 25, 26	Away	Ruh Lviv	0 - 3	Win

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 27, 26	Away	Veres Rivne	1 - 1	Draw
Mar 4, 26	Away	Nyva Ternopil	3 - 2	Loss
Jan 28, 26	Away	Ruh Lviv	0 - 2	Win
Jul 19, 24	Away	Chornomorets	2 - 1	Loss
Jul 3, 23	Away	Oleksandria	1 - 0	Loss
Jun 28, 21	Away	FC Mariupol	2 - 0	Loss

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
550	Karpaty	7	2	1	4	9	9	0	7
831	Yarud Mariupol'	3	1	1	1	5	4	+1	4

This prediction indicates that the football match is poised to end in a draw.

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.74% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.9% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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