Süper Lig
Match Analysis
Kocaelispor
Amed
Kocaelispor
L
L
L
D
L
D
Amed
W
W
D
D
L
D
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model sees Amed as the stronger side, with a clear quality gap in their favor and better recent form, plus they have dominated recent meetings and shown strong attacking form lately. Despite this, the model predicts Kocaelispor has a 39% chance of winning at home, which is less confident than what the current market odds suggest for a home win. The odds imply a higher likelihood of a home win compared to the model's view, while the model also sees a roughly even chance of both teams scoring and leans toward fewer than two goals being scored in the match.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | Amed | 1 - 0 | February 8, 2025 |
| Amed | Kocaelispor | 3 - 0 | September 2, 2024 |
| Kocaelispor | Amed | 1 - 2 | March 24, 2021 |
| Amed | Kocaelispor | 3 - 0 | November 18, 2020 |
Kocaelispor Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Istanbul Basaksehir | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| May 17, 26 | Away | Antalyaspor | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| May 9, 26 | Home | Fatih Karagümrük | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| May 3, 26 | Away | Kasimpasa | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Apr 26, 26 | Away | Genclerbirligi | 1 - 0 | Loss |
| Apr 18, 26 | Home | Goztepe | 1 - 1 | Draw |
Amed Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 26 | Home | Erzurum BB | 3 - 0 | Win |
| Jul 16, 26 | Home | Dinamo Batumi | 2 - 0 | Win |
| May 2, 26 | Away | 76 Iğdır Belediyespor | 3 - 3 | Draw |
| Apr 26, 26 | Home | BB Bodrumspor | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| Apr 19, 26 | Away | Bandırmaspor | 2 - 0 | Loss |
| Apr 13, 26 | Home | Ümraniyespor | 2 - 2 | Draw |
Süper Lig Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Amed | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 15 | Kocaelispor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions
Correct Prediction! ✅
Kocaelispor or Amed to win
This prediction indicates that Kocaelispor has a 38.94% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 27.77 %Correct Prediction! ✅
Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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