USL Championship
Match Analysis
Lexington
El Paso Locomotive
Lexington
W
L
L
L
W
L
El Paso Locomotive
W
W
W
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | Lexington | 1 - 4 | May 31, 2026 |
| Lexington | El Paso Locomotive | 1 - 2 | October 11, 2025 |
| El Paso Locomotive | Lexington | 2 - 1 | April 6, 2025 |
Lexington Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 26 | Away | Oakland Roots | 1 - 4 | Win |
| Sep 5, 26 | Away | Sporting JAX | 3 - 2 | Loss |
| Aug 29, 26 | Home | Colorado Springs | 0 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 27, 26 | Away | New Mexico United | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| Aug 22, 26 | Home | Las Vegas Lights | 2 - 0 | Win |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | Sacramento Republic | 1 - 0 | Loss |
El Paso Locomotive Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 26 | Away | Louisville City | 1 - 2 | Win |
| Aug 30, 26 | Home | Loudoun United | 4 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 27, 26 | Home | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 23, 26 | Away | Colorado Springs | 0 - 1 | Win |
| Aug 16, 26 | Away | San Antonio | 0 - 3 | Win |
| Aug 9, 26 | Home | Oakland Roots | 1 - 0 | Win |
USL Championship Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | El Paso Locomotive | 24 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 41 | 30 | +11 | 43 |
| 13 | Lexington | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 37 | 30 | +7 | 34 |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - Yes
This prediction indicates that there is a 55.7% likelihood that both Lexington and El Paso Locomotive will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.Lexington or El Paso Locomotive to win
This prediction indicates that Lexington has a 40.55% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 26.66 %Over 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 53.84% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.Over 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 52.92% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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