Louisville City vs Birmingham Legion Thursday 30th July 2026 02:30 AM football predictions.

Match Analysis

Louisville City Birmingham Legion

Louisville City W D W D L L

Birmingham Legion D L D D L D

STRENGTH

EXPECTED GOALS

HEAD TO HEAD

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Head to Head History

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Birmingham Legion	Louisville City	1 - 1	June 4, 2026
Louisville City	Birmingham Legion	4 - 2	June 15, 2025
Birmingham Legion	Louisville City	1 - 1	March 16, 2025
Birmingham Legion	Louisville City	1 - 4	June 29, 2024
Louisville City	Birmingham Legion	5 - 0	March 30, 2024
Birmingham Legion	Louisville City	2 - 0	August 19, 2023

Louisville City Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Home	Hartford Athletic	1 - 0	Win
Jun 14, 26	Home	Brooklyn	2 - 2	Draw
Jun 11, 26	Away	Phoenix Rising	0 - 2	Win
Jun 4, 26	Away	Birmingham Legion	1 - 1	Draw
May 30, 26	Home	Tampa Bay Rowdies	0 - 2	Loss
May 23, 26	Away	Miami FC	4 - 3	Loss

Birmingham Legion Form (Last 6 Matches)

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jul 5, 26	Away	Miami FC	1 - 1	Draw
Jul 3, 26	Home	Detroit City	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 21, 26	Home	Loudoun United	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 17, 26	Away	Oakland Roots	1 - 1	Draw
Jun 14, 26	Home	Las Vegas Lights	1 - 2	Loss
Jun 4, 26	Home	Louisville City	1 - 1	Draw

USL Championship Table

Pos	Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Louisville City	15	7	3	5	25	22	+3	24
22	Birmingham Legion	15	2	8	5	16	19	-3	14

Predictions

Both Teams To Score - Yes

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.49% likelihood that both Louisville City and Birmingham Legion will score at least one goal each during the course of the match.

Louisville City to win

This prediction indicates that Louisville City has a 60.23% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 20.48 %

Over 1.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 51.12% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be two or more goals scored.

Over 2.5 goals

This prediction indicates that there is a 54.52% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be three or more goals scored.

Most Likely Scorelines

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