Luxembourg vs Bulgaria Tuesday 06th October 2026 09:45 PM football predictions.

UEFA Nations League

Oct. 6, 2026 2 weeks from now VS

Luxembourg Bulgaria

Luxembourg W L W W L L

Bulgaria D L W L L L

STRENGTH

SHOT CONVERSION

SHOTS ON TARGET

POSSESSION

SAVE RATE

ATTACKING POTENTIAL

EXPECTED GOALS

WINS THE GAME

What do these metrics mean?

Strength: Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
Shot Conversion: Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
Shots on Target: Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
Possession: Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
Save Rate: Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
Attacking Potential: Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
Defensive Potential: Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
Expected Goals: Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
Head to Head: Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
Wins the Game: Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Date
Luxembourg	Bulgaria	0 - 1	November 15, 2024
Bulgaria	Luxembourg	0 - 0	October 12, 2024
Luxembourg	Bulgaria	0 - 0	November 20, 2022
Luxembourg	Bulgaria	1 - 1	October 10, 2017
Bulgaria	Luxembourg	4 - 3	September 6, 2016

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 6, 26	Away	Albania	0 - 1	Win
Jun 3, 26	Home	Italy	0 - 1	Loss
Mar 31, 26	Home	Malta	3 - 0	Win
Mar 26, 26	Away	Malta	0 - 2	Win
Nov 17, 25	Away	Northern Ireland	1 - 0	Loss
Nov 14, 25	Home	Germany	0 - 2	Loss

Date	Venue	Opponent	Score	Result
Jun 5, 26	Away	Moldova	2 - 2	Draw
Jun 1, 26	Home	Montenegro	0 - 1	Loss
Nov 18, 25	Home	Georgia	2 - 1	Win
Nov 15, 25	Away	Türkiye	2 - 0	Loss
Oct 14, 25	Away	Spain	4 - 0	Loss
Oct 11, 25	Home	Türkiye	1 - 6	Loss

This prediction indicates that Luxembourg has a 45.96% likelihood to win the match. The likelihood for the match to end as a draw is 28.31 %

This prediction indicates that there is a 59.16% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.

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