FKF Premier League
Match Analysis
Mathare United
APS Bomet
Mathare United
W
L
W
L
D
L
APS Bomet
D
W
W
W
W
W
What do these metrics mean?
- Strength
- Recent form points from the last several matches. Higher means a better recent run of results.
- Shot Conversion
- Goals scored divided by total shots taken (rolling window of past matches). Measures finishing efficiency — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Shots on Target
- Proportion of shots that were on target. Reflects shot accuracy and discipline — only available when historical shot data exists.
- Possession
- Average ball possession percentage over recent matches. Indicates territorial dominance — only available when historical stats exist.
- Save Rate
- Goalkeeper saves divided by shots faced. Higher means the keeper is denying more chances — only available when historical stats exist.
- Attacking Potential
- Composite index from goals, expected goals and shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked for a team.
- Defensive Potential
- Composite index from goals conceded, saves and blocked shots (weighted). Only available when full shot stats are tracked.
- Expected Goals
- Poisson-estimated goals each team is likely to score, derived from season attack/defence averages and opponent strength.
- Head to Head
- Historical win share across all previous meetings between these two teams (home wins | draws | away wins).
- Wins the Game
- Machine learning win probability — the model's confidence that each team wins this match outright.
Why this prediction? AI insight
The model sees a modest quality edge for APS Bomet, but also notes that Mathare United have moderate recent form while APS Bomet have strong recent form, suggesting a closely matched contest. With limited head-to-head history and similar rest for both sides, the model predicts a draw with a 37% probability. This draw prediction aligns closely with the market odds, which also imply a competitive matchup. Additionally, the model flags the 'under 2.5 goals' outcome as a sure tip, showing more confidence in a lower-scoring game than the market odds suggest.
Head to Head History
| Home Team | Away Team | Score | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | APS Bomet | 0 - 2 | May 10, 2026 |
| APS Bomet | Mathare United | 1 - 1 | November 9, 2025 |
Mathare United Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 26 | Home | Bandari | 1 - 0 | Win |
| May 23, 26 | Away | Ulinzi Stars | 2 - 1 | Loss |
| May 16, 26 | Away | Mara Sugar | 0 - 1 | Win |
| May 10, 26 | Home | APS Bomet | 0 - 2 | Loss |
| May 2, 26 | Away | Sofapaka | 2 - 2 | Draw |
| Apr 25, 26 | Home | Nairobi United | 1 - 2 | Loss |
APS Bomet Form (Last 6 Matches)
| Date | Venue | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 26 | Away | Tusker | 1 - 1 | Draw |
| May 24, 26 | Home | AFC Leopards | 2 - 1 | Win |
| May 20, 26 | Away | Bandari | 0 - 2 | Win |
| May 10, 26 | Away | Mathare United | 0 - 2 | Win |
| May 6, 26 | Home | KCB | 1 - 0 | Win |
| Apr 26, 26 | Home | Sofapaka | 1 - 0 | Win |
FKF Premier League Table
| Pos | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | APS Bomet | None | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
| None | Mathare United | None | None | None | None | None | None | None | None |
Predictions
Both Teams To Score - No
This prediction suggests that there is a 56.67% likelihood that only one team is likely to score throughout the entire match.Correct Score 0 - 0
This prediction indicates that Mathare United will score 0 goals, and APS Bomet will score 0 goals in the football match.Match Result (1X2) - Draw
This prediction indicates that the football match is poised to end in a draw.Under 1.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 62.38% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than two goals scored.Under 2.5 goals
This prediction indicates that there is a 64.27% likelihood that by the end of the football match, there will be less than three goals scored.Most Likely Scorelines
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